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Long Run is fully expected to return to winning ways when he runs rearranged Grade 2 Denman Chase over 3 miles at Newbury on Friday.
The reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup champion has been beaten in his first two starts this season both times by Kauto Star. The first of those defeats came in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock back in November, where Long Run trailed home in second place over 8 lengths adrift. A further dose of defeat was then repeated in the King George Vl Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day, this time Kauto Star getting home by just over a length, when winning the race for a record breaking fifth time. It was a defeat that will have no doubt rankled Long Run’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, who would have expected his seven year old to claim the prestigious race for a second successive year. Henderson however, has talked up Long Run since that defeat, confirming his improvement and that he is working extremely well at his Seven Barrows home and remains on course in his bid to win back-to-back Gold Cups.
Bookmakers certainly don't see him losing on Friday, with most offering 1/2 with some are as short as 2/5. The nearest to him in the betting is the Paul Nichols trained, What A Friend, who has not been on track since a running over hurdles back in October. He is a general 11/2 shot but on all known form, he would have to produce a career best performance to beat Long Run. Nicholls however has a great record in this race, which was formerly the AON Chase, winning it four times from the last five renewals and he would like nothing more than to have his now retired Denman honoured by one two in the race finding his way to the winners enclosure.
His other runner is the unpredictable 10/1 shot, Tidal Bay, a horse who has been tried in almost every major National Hunt race since he won the Arkle Challenge Trophy back in 2008. Tidal Bay has run in the Ryanair Chase, the Melling Chase, the World Hurdle, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National, without winning one of them, but more often than not earning a place. Now an 11 year old and under the stewardship of Nicholls, he ran with considerable credit last time when second behind Midnight Chase in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham last month and comes to Newbury with more than a degree of hope.
Medermit, from the Alan King yard will be running over three miles for the first time but this very consistent eight year old should just about stay the trip. Second last time out behind Quantativeeasing in the Grade 3 Atlantic 4 Gold Cup Handicap over 2m5f, Medermit comes to the race from a hugely in form stable that enjoyed 26 wins in December and January. Stable jockey, Robert Thornton, will be back from injury to take the ride and if proving his stamina Medermit could be a lively outsider for both this race and the Gold Cup.
Henderson is also set to run Burton Port after an absence of 15 months following an injury set back sustained in the wake of his excellent second place behind Diamond Harry in the 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup. It is a big ask for him to win this when he probably needs a run but he is a thoroughly decent horse who is capable at his best of getting into a place at least but this is likely to the first step back to fitness with the Grand National his likely target in April, for which he was allocated a weight of 11-7 this week but if he is anywhere close to that Hennessy form, he could look favourably treated for the Aintree marathon trip.
The Giant Bolster from the David Bridgewater stable comes to the race on the back of a fine and emphatic 17 length win over the useful Poquelin in the Grade 3 Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham last month. He is certainly an improving sort who should feature prominently if his last run is anything to go by.
Little Josh too, although a 25/1 shot, ran well for a long time on his comeback run in the Argento Chase and should come on for the experience. The 2010 Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, usually runs well when fresh and his trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies is of the firm conviction that he will do himself justice in the race.
Whilst Long Run remains the clear and justified favourite to land this race, there is no getting away from the fact that this is a hot race with several useful sorts using it as a stepping stone for bigger targets before the season draws to a close. If Long Run justifies his price and makes a return to winning way, it will set up an exciting countdown to the Cheltenham Gold Cup battle with Long Run whilst any other notable performance from this race could give punters plenty of food for thought for ahead of the Cheltenham and Aintree meetings.
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There has been little movement in the Cheltenham Gold Cup market since the King George Vl Chase over Christmas but that should all change with the running of the Grade Two, Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Currently, defending champion, Long Run, remains the 5/2 favourite to claim a second successive Gold Cup, despite his two defeats at the hands of Kauto Star this season, who is the 4/1 second favourite to win a third Gold Cup at the age of 12 and Grands Crus is the next best after the leading duo and is a 9/1 chance in the latest Gold Cup betting.
It is Grands Crus who re-enters the spotlight with a tilt at the Argento and his trainer, David Pipe, will be looking for a winning performance in this race to help make up his mind whether to run him against Long Run and Kauto Star at Cheltenham or remain on course for his original target of the RSA Chase given he is after all, still a Novice.
Pipe has certainly selected a race that should test Grands Crus to the full, he will have a number of quality rivals to beat including, Captain Chris, who was third in the King George as well as this season's Hennessy Gold Cup winner, Carruthers. Nick Williams is also keen to run Diamond Harry, winner of the 2010 Hennessy and is widely regarded by many as a potential dark horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup himself. Tidal Bay, winner of the 2008 Arkle Challenge Trophy will be having his first run over fences for new trainer, Paul Nicholls, whilst Time For Rupert will attempt to redeem his flagging reputation with a big run for trainer Paul Webber. Nicholls also intends to run Minack, who looked very impressive when winning the Listed Owen Brown Silver Cup over three miles at Wincanton a week before Christmas and who also has an entry for the Gold Cup.
The other horse who has been subject to antepost support to win the Gold Cup is the Jonjo O’Neill trained, Synchronised, who looked so impressive when winning the Grade One Lexus Chase over three miles at Leopardstown at the end of December. This 2010 Welsh National winner appears to have improved hugely this season and is currently a 12/1 shot to win the National Hunt’s most prized race. He is likely to be next seen in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup on 12th February before a decision is made whether or not he goes to Cheltenham.
As far as Long Run is concerned, trainer Nicky Henderson intends to run him next in the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury on 11th February. Henderson also intends to run without the earplugs fitted prior to his victory in last year’s King George. Henderson believes that the ear plugs may have started to relax the seven year old too much, hence his two defeats by Kauto Star this season. He also has made it clear that he believes that Long Run has not taken a step backwards since last season but rather showing signs of improve.
Meanwhile, Kauto Star continues to enjoy life at Ditcheat, his trainer, Paul Nicholls is delighted with stable star this season where he looking as good as he did four years ago despite his advancing years. It is difficult to understand the reasons why he was so apparently jaded last season but one explanation proffered is that the fall he took in the 2010 Gold Cup upset his confidence and it took time for it to be restored. That is now in the past and Nicholls remains more than hopeful that the Kauto Star can end his illustrious career with a third triumph in the Gold Cup, a result that would arguably end all arguments about whether he's the greatest chaser of all time.
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Despite having not raced this season, reigning Champion Hurdler, Hurricane Fly, remains the odds on favourite to win a second successive Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of this month at Leopardstown.
Should he win that race of course, then any current doubts that linger with regards to his participation at the Cheltenham Festival would come to an end. Trainer, Willie Mullins, has reiterated that he will not run the 7 year old until he knew that he was ready to race at Grade 1 level, which is why he was withdrawn from both the Morgiana and Istabraq Hurdles and who has yet to race this season.
He is currently the 9/4 favourite in the Champion Hurdle odds to win the race for a second year running but bookmakers are not reporting a great deal of antepost activity on him currently. That will all change of course should he get home at Leopardstown when he will almost certainly be made odds on by the off. The question is whether you take the antepost gamble before he runs!
It is interesting to note who the Bookmakers see as his main dangers in the Champion Hurdle and that list starts with 7/1 second favourite, Grandouet, trained by Nicky Henderson. The five year old has continued to improve all season over hurdles and confirmed that improvement with an emphatic 4 length win over the Donald McCain trained, Overturn in the Grade 2 International Hurdle over 2m1f at Cheltenham last month.
Third in the Triumph Hurdle last season behind Zarkandar and Unaccompanied, Grandouet has clearly made the transition from juvenile and being just five appears to have a very big future ahead of him.
The same could also be said for Zarkandar, half brother to Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner, Zarkava, although frustratingly like Hurricane Fly has yet to be seen out this season. There was no doubting his ability last season where in addition to the ‘Triumph’ he also won the Grade 1 4YO Trophy at Aintree. Trainer, Paul Nicholls has been keeping him under wraps throughout the first half of the season but has assured racegoers that he will have a spin in February. At this stage it is hard to imagine that he would have the experience to defeat a champion as good as Hurricane Fly, but there were many last season willing to describe this 5 year old as a superstar of the future which if is the case then he will be a huge danger.
Nicky Henderson in fact has two other major protagonists in the race, firstly Spirit Son, second in the Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2011 and Binocular, champion Hurdler in 2010. It seems like a trend this season, but Spirit Son has also yet to have a run this term, while Binocular on the other hand put up a game performance to hold off Rock On Ruby to win the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. Binocular of course was unable to defend his crown in last season’s Champion Hurdle having been pulled out almost at the last minute, but he should be there this time and with further improvement he could go very close again.
Rock On Ruby will also be aimed at the Champion Hurdle as will Dermot Weld’s Unaccompanied, who won the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle from a Thousand Stars at Leopardstown. While others who could come into the reckoning will be Oscars Well and Overturn, winner of the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November.
However, this race as it stands currently is all about the participation of the champion, if Hurricane fly runs then he is most definately the one to beat, if he doesn’t run, then a very open race is in prospect.
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As we head into the New Year, attention on the British Jumps Racing season begins to focus on the Cheltenham Festival in March and with a clear picture now established as to who the main protagonists are for most of the four day meeting's 27 races, it's time to take a look at some of the early contenders that are worth keeping a close eye on over the next couple of months. This will hopefully be the first in a series of previews over the coming weeks.
Supreme Novices Hurdle – Prospect Wells
Usually a dreadful race for favourites, the one liked here in fact is the Paul Nicholls trained Prospect Wells with odds currently of 14/1. His performance in December, when fourth in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle should not be taken too seriously, there were plenty of excuses for him that day. What should be noted is that the 6 year old ran a blinder when ¼ length second behind Steps To Freedom in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices Hurdle back in November over 2m1f at Cheltenham. A cosy win next time out in a decent novice hurdle at Newbury showed he had progressed nicely and he should turn up at Cheltenham ready to reverse the form with Steps To Freedom. Nicholls has saddled two winners of this race since 2006.
Arkle Trophy – Al Ferof
Also not a great race for favourites, but the winner usually comes from one of those that have been well backed. Until his 16 length defeat by Sprinter Sacre at Kempton at Christmas, it was Peddlers Cross from the Donald McCain yard that was attracting all the attention for the ‘Arkle’. However, despite excuses coming from Jockey, Jason Maguire and McCain it is difficult to see how he can reverse that form, which is why Sprinter Sacre is now the short odds favourite.
However the one preferred in this is another Nicholls entry, Al Ferof, winner of the Supreme Novices 12 months ago and a winner at Grade 1 and Grade 2 level over fences this season from two starts. He had to dig deep in his Grade 1 win, but in doing so he showed that not only does he have ability but also plenty of true grit and looks a great inclusion in a Yankee with odds of 7/1.
Festival Handicap Chase – Planet of Sound
Trainer Alan King will be looking for a third consecutive win in this race and it is his winner from last season, Bensalem who looks a decent pick at this stage. The problem with this race is that the runners will not be fully known until the nearer the time, but Bensalem is certain to run and should be considered.
Preference however is given to the Phillip Hobbs trained Planet Of Sound a Grade 1 winning chaser who was second behind Carruthers in the Hennessy Gold Cup back in November.
Champion Hurdle – Zarkandar
With so much uncertainty surrounding the form of last year’s winner, Hurricane Fly, the Champion Hurdle could become one of the most open affairs for some time.
Although no run so far this season and one not unlikely until February, Zarkandar, the scintillating winner of the Triumph Hurdle 12 months ago certainly has the class to become champion hurdler. Paul Nicholls has been hugely excited about the five year old to be becoming his first ever winner of this race and is determined to keep him under wraps for the time being.
The form of those beaten by him in the Triumph continues to work out really well for the half brother of the brilliant Zarkava. Grandouet who was third in that race has been out and won the Grade 2 International Hurdle, while Unaccompanied, who was beaten into second place in the Triumph, defeated a top class field when winning the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown last week. He may be worth a punt before his first run at the current odds of 8/1, which could be huge if he returns in the manner expected.
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The often very revealing Grade One John Durkan Chase over 2m4f at Punchestown takes place this Sunday with the winner from 12 months ago, Tranquil Sea, taking on amongst others, the 2009 race winner, Joncol. Both of these former winners are prominent in the betting ahead of Sunday’s race but it is the Robert Hennessy trained, Rubi Light, who is currently the 9/4 favourite to win to the race that has produced a number of big name Cheltenham Festival, including Florida Pearl and Kicking King in recent years.
Third behind Alberta’s Run in the Grade One Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, Rubi Light was last seen in the Grade Two, Pricewaterhosecooper Champion Chase over 2m4f at Gowran Park, where he fell at the last when looking the likely winner. It was Sizing Europe in fact who went on to win that race but it was clear that Rubi Light had the beating of him that day. Sizing Europe of course was seen winning the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown Park last Saturday, which in some respects franks the form of Rubi Light and provides a good enough reason for starting favourite on Sunday but he still has something to prove and others are preferred.
Defending champion, Tranquil Sea, has also been out for a spin already this season, winning the Grade Two Clonmel Oil Chase over 2m4f last month. Trainer Edward O’Grady believes he will improve for that run and sees no reason why he should not make the winners enclosure for a second successive year, even though it is back at Punchestown after last year's race was run at Fairyhouse due to the weather.
Joncol from the Paul Nolan stable has also been out this season and looked very impressive when winning the Listed John Meagher Memorial Chase over 2m6f at Thurles last month. He took that race by 12 lengths from the one time Cheltenham Gold Cup fancy, Cooldine, with the useful Roberto Goldback a further eight lengths adrift in third. He was to appear at the Newbury a couple of weeks ago in a bid to win the Hennessy Gold Cup but the ground did not come right for him so he has been kept back for this, for which he is a 5/2 chance. Nolan has said that a good run on Sunday will see him aimed at the Grade One Lexus Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting.
The Willie Mullins trained Kempes has simply not been at his best since he won the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February. He pulled up in both of his next two starts after that ‘Hennessy’ win firstly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and then in the Guinness Gold Cup in May. He went off as the 5/4 favourite to win on his seasonal reappearance in a low key hurdle race over 2 miles at Cork a fortnight or so ago, but managed only third place. He is currently a 6/1 chance to win this race.
Mullins is also represented by Cooldine, who as mentioned was well beaten last time out at the hands of Joncol. A couple of years back, this nine year old was tipped to have a big future but the truth is he has failed to live up to the hype that was thrust upon him after he won the 2009 RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. In fact, he has not won a race since and although he did put in a decent performance when second, once again behind Joncol, in the 2010 Irish Hennessy Gold Cup he is not one to be putting a lot of faith in.
This looks to be a three horse race between, Rubi Light, Joncol and Tranquil and whilst any of that trio could win, preference is for Joncol who could have much more to offer following the manner of his win last time but whoever wins, the likelihood is they'll be amongst Ireland's leading Cheltenham tips heading across the water for the Festival come March.
Joncol (picture above)
Jockey P Carberry
Trainer Paul Nolan
Owner Mrs K Browne
Breeder Mrs Kay Browne
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With the National Hunt season now in full swing and the racing world firmly on the road to Cheltenham, punters have had their first opportunities to see some of the hopefuls that are well fancied for many of the Festival's races in March. Peddlers Cross and Grands Crus have both made big impressions amongst the Novice Chasing ranks whilst Big Bucks picked up where he left in his previous 12 races when hacking up at Newbury last Saturday on his seasonal debut to make it 13 wins on the bounce and a firm favourite to land a fourth consecutive World Hurdle. As far as the early Cheltenham Gold Cup picture is concerned, the talk is about just two horses, Long Run and Kauto Star.
Reigning Gold Cup champion Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson, remains the 11/4 favourite despite finishing second behind Kauto Star in the Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock Park a couple of weeks ago. Kauto Star however, remains a 14/1 chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup odds to win the race for a third time despite the eight length demolition of his rival on his seasonal debut.
The current situation between the two market leaders course could all change when they meet at Kempton Park on Boxing Day to contest the King George Chase over 3 miles. The King George is a definitive trial for the Gold Cup but it is also a race that has its own prestige, being regarded as the second highest rated chase within the National Hunt season. Long Run won the race 12 months ago, depriving Kauto Star of a record breaking fifth win before confirming that form when he landed the Gold Cup last March, with Kauto Star and his stablemate, Denman, trailing behind.
Whether the defeat in the Betfair chase is just a blip for Long Run, a result of it being his first race since his Cheltenham Festival glory, remains to be seen. However, the result certainly makes the King George an intriguing contest with the Gold Cup antepost market in mind whilst there still remain a couple of others that cannot be ruled out of holding claims for victory in the Festival's feature race.
Denman is one such candidate and will not be seen until Christmas when he travels over to Ireland to tackle the Grade One, Lexus Chase over 3 miles. This race is also a major Gold Cup trial that is held at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting and which Denman won in 2007 before going on to win the Gold Cup three months later. That win in 2008 was Denman’s only Gold Cup victory to date but he has been second in each of the last three renewals and although he will be 12 come March, as will Kauto Star both are on course to take their chance according to trainer, Paul Nicholls. Only two 12 year olds have ever won the Gold Cup, What A Myth in 1969 and Silver Fame in 1951. In fact there has been no Gold Cup winner’s aged ten or more since Cool Dawn won the race in 1998, which makes the task that bit tougher for Kauto Star and Denman but it could be argued have any horses over the age of ten, or aged 12, been as good as these two previous winners?
Of the younger horses, there has been plenty of positive talk regarding the chances of the David Pipe trained Grands Crus, who came into the reckoning after winning the Grade 2 GPG Novices Chase at Newbury last week. Novices however simply do not win the Gold Cup and although Long Run won as a six year old last year, he was a second season chaser. Pipe of course will harbour bad memories of the last time a novice was entered by the Pond House stable into the race, because they lost the very promising Gloria Victis in 2000 after he broke a leg by falling two fences from home, when in contention, so it may be a case of exercising caution this year and sticking to the RSA Chase at the Festival but if he continues his upward curve, expect Grands Crus to be a key player come 2013!
Another Gold Cup trial, the Grade One JN Wine Chase, took place at the beginning of November at Down Royal and saw the Colm Murphy trained, Quito De La Roque win by 1¼ lengths from 2011 Champion Chaser, Sizing Europe after staying on strongly from way behind. He proved in that race that his stamina is not in question and the seven year old was chalking up his seventh chase win from eight starts. He is likely to be next seen in a listed chase over 3m1f at Aintree on Saturday where if putting in another winning performance, you can expect the current 16/1 on offer at Paddy Power about a Gold Cup win being long gone.
The Gold Cup picture still remains a discussion over a limited number of runners but a talent group at that but with several more Gold Cup trials coming up in December all that could change. Get your notebooks at the ready!
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Laaheb is today's recommended bet in the 6.40 Kempton.
Laaheb was well beaten on latest effort at Newmarket when finishing 7/8 that day and beaten 54l. However, that does not put me off from betting the horse today.
This is a good listed race and tonight he will face some tough opposition the likes of Parlour Games have run and improved all season,that said I think that Laaheb will be too classy for these tonight.
Laaheb last ran at Kempton some time ago back in 2010 that day he comprehensively beat Holberg who is a good type,the manner in which he won that race that day showed us that he was potentially a good horse and since then he has not disappointed winning at Ascot next time out and running very well against the likes of Rewilding, Dandino and Await The Dawn.
Laaheb has already proven that he can act on this surface and with just a 2lb rise from when he last ran and won here off 111,rated 113 today I just have to bet him albeit at the prohibited odds of 5/4.
Recommendation...Laaheb 6:40 Kempton 4 pt win @ 5/4 use best odds.
Jockey Richard Hills
Trainer Roger Varian
Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum
Breeder Darley
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When I looked at Lingfield yesterday I felt that the racing was just too competitive a lot of decent graded races took place there yesterday, but for me better class doesn't equal stronger fancies.
Cheltenham for example and a lot of the big meetings, how difficult is it to predict the winner?
Very difficult is the answer. Me? Well, I prefer the day to day stuff with just average handicappers as I can catch an odd improver who I think will progress further in time. I think that I have 'latched' on to such a horse today.
Pinotage was a lowly rated horse in April 2011,he has been progressive this season especially in recent months.
He is still by no means a world beater,but he has gone from a mark in the 40's to a mark in the 50's and a win tonight would see him put off a handicap mark in the 60's. It is important to note that he hasn't just improved on turf he has improved on the all weather surface as well.
Let us look at his latest 2 races at Lingfield he was mid division before making his challenge 3 wide in the home straight and battled on nicely.
A different story at on his latest start at Wolverhampton this time worse than mid division, and was in a bad position at the back on the home turn, before finishing strongly and showing a nice turn of foot finishing 3rd. He caught my eye that day and i just have to bet him tonight win or lose .
Recommendation Pinotage 2pt win 7.40 Wolverhampton.
Jockey Justin Newman
Trainer Richard Whitaker
Owner Nice Day Out Partnership
Breeder Hellwood Stud Farm
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Useless Information
pi·no·tage /ˈpēnōˌtäZH/
Noun:
- A variety of red wine grape grown in South Africa, produced by crossing Pinot Noir and other varieties.
- Red wine made from this grape.
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