With the National Hunt season now in full swing and the racing world firmly on the road to Cheltenham, punters have had their first opportunities to see some of the hopefuls that are well fancied for many of the Festival's races in March. Peddlers Cross and Grands Crus have both made big impressions amongst the Novice Chasing ranks whilst Big Bucks picked up where he left in his previous 12 races when hacking up at Newbury last Saturday on his seasonal debut to make it 13 wins on the bounce and a firm favourite to land a fourth consecutive World Hurdle. As far as the early Cheltenham Gold Cup picture is concerned, the talk is about just two horses, Long Run and Kauto Star.
Reigning Gold Cup champion Long Run, trained by Nicky Henderson, remains the 11/4 favourite despite finishing
second behind Kauto Star in the Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock Park a couple of weeks ago. Kauto Star however, remains a 14/1 chance in the
Cheltenham Gold Cup odds to win the race for a third time despite the eight length demolition of his rival on his seasonal debut.
The current situation between the two market leaders course could all change when they meet at Kempton Park on Boxing Day to contest the King George Chase over 3 miles. The King George is a definitive trial for the Gold Cup but it is also a race that has its own prestige, being regarded as the second highest rated chase within the National Hunt season. Long Run won the race 12 months ago, depriving Kauto Star of a record breaking fifth win before confirming that form when he landed the Gold Cup last March, with Kauto Star and his stablemate, Denman, trailing behind.
Whether the defeat in the Betfair chase is just a blip for Long Run, a result of it being his first race since his Cheltenham Festival glory, remains to be seen. However, the result certainly makes the King George an intriguing contest with the Gold Cup antepost market in mind whilst there still remain a couple of others that cannot be ruled out of holding claims for victory in the Festival's feature race.
Denman is one such candidate and will not be seen until Christmas when he travels over to Ireland to tackle the Grade One, Lexus Chase over 3 miles. This race is also a major Gold Cup trial that is held at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting and which Denman won in 2007 before going on to win the Gold Cup three months later. That win in 2008 was Denman’s only Gold Cup victory to date but he has been second in each of the last three renewals and although he will be 12 come March, as will Kauto Star both are on course to take their chance according to trainer, Paul Nicholls. Only two 12 year olds have ever won the Gold Cup, What A Myth in 1969 and Silver Fame in 1951. In fact there has been no Gold Cup winner’s aged ten or more since Cool Dawn won the race in 1998, which makes the task that bit tougher for Kauto Star and Denman but it could be argued have any horses over the age of ten, or aged 12, been as good as these two previous winners?
Of the younger horses, there has been plenty of positive talk regarding the chances of the David Pipe trained Grands Crus, who came into the reckoning after winning the Grade 2 GPG Novices Chase at Newbury last week. Novices however simply do not win the Gold Cup and although Long Run won as a six year old last year, he was a second season chaser. Pipe of course will harbour bad memories of the last time a novice was entered by the Pond House stable into the race, because they lost the very promising Gloria Victis in 2000 after he broke a leg by falling two fences from home, when in contention, so it may be a case of exercising caution this year and sticking to the RSA Chase at the Festival but if he continues his upward curve, expect Grands Crus to be a key player come 2013!
Another Gold Cup trial, the Grade One JN Wine Chase, took place at the beginning of November at Down Royal and saw the Colm Murphy trained, Quito De La Roque win by 1¼ lengths from 2011 Champion Chaser, Sizing Europe after staying on strongly from way behind. He proved in that race that his stamina is not in question and the seven year old was chalking up his seventh chase win from eight starts. He is likely to be next seen in a listed chase over 3m1f at Aintree on Saturday where if putting in another winning performance, you can expect the current 16/1 on offer at Paddy Power about a Gold Cup win being long gone.
The Gold Cup picture still remains a discussion over a limited number of runners but a talent group at that but with several more Gold Cup trials coming up in December all that could change. Get your notebooks at the ready!
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