And So It Began..conga's Staking Method

#1 Guest_Conga_*

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Posted 21 November 2011 - 08:23 PM

I began to think about staking in some depth and i came up with a simple idea,the bookies work on maths to win and so should I, using the simple percentages i worked out that if a horse runs in a four runner race then that horse has automatically got a 25 % chance of winning the race that is before anything else is factored in. So the following table was produced.

4 runners = 2.5 pts

5 runners = 2 pts

6 runners = 1.6 pts

7 runners = 1.4 pts

8 runners= 1.25 pts

9 runners = 1.1pts

10 runners = 1pt

11 runners= 0.90pt

12 runners = 0.80 pt

and so forth,so you get the idea. LOWER fields equals MORE STAKE. As the pendulum swings in our favour then so the stake must increase.

I applied this to todays bets 21st Nov 2011 and a profit was made of 2.77 pts 3 from 4 winners.

However,i quickly realised that anything above the 1.4 pts should be rounded up to 2 pts and anything below should now be 1pt and when i looked at this method my profit was boosted from 2.77pts to 4.85 pts a big difference for a relatively small change.

So in conclusion i have decided the following 7 runners or below equals 2pts,more than 7 should equal 1 pt.

#2 volcano

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14 posts

Posted 21 November 2011 - 09:37 PM

An interesting theory conga.

I use a level staking plan and bet the same amount for each horse regardless of number of runners, would you apply the theory after you have selected your runners or take the "potential" profit into consideration as part of the selection?

I have read your thread on staking plans and will comment on that thread.

p.s. keep the winners coming ;-)

#3 Guest_Conga_*

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Posted 22 November 2011 - 10:16 AM

I am just going by the simple rules as stated under 7 equals 2 pts over 7 equals 1pt regardless of whatever the price may be for my selection. I will try my best to pick a few more winners in future.

#4 adavis

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Posted 25 November 2011 - 02:00 AM

My thoughts on this one is that the odds for the race already factor in the number of other runners.
In fact, the odds also account for the respective chances of those runners too (rather than a basic 100/number of runners = %age chance equation).
It's time for my bed, so I'm struggling to articulate what I'm thinking, but isn't this staking method is essentially the same as above a certain price is a bet of 1 point, while below is a bet of 2 points?
I'd be interested to know whether you've got enough data to see if that pattern emerges.

#5 Richard

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Posted 25 November 2011 - 08:42 AM

It does in fact go against conventional wisdom. That you should be staking more the better price you are getting presuming of course the horse has the form to win the race and is not just a high price to attract "mug" bets.

However, may have benefits for certain types of punter in that they where limiting there losses when placing "unsound" bets and vice versa.

The foundation should be race selection first and this does not mean the race with least runners or the highest class races either as both can produce very tricky fields in form terms.

Depends a lot on who you are talking to, if a complete novice, advice would be never to bet in a race lower than class 4, however, there are odd class 5 and 6 races which can present lucrative betting opportunities. The advice though would eliminate many more losers for a novice than it would cost him winners.

I also think as a general rule of thumb to stick only to betting in handicaps of 12 runners or less would be a profitable rule for a novice punter otherwise variables increase exponentially for every extra runner.

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And So It Began..conga's Staking Method

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